In a recent computer simulation, China sank a US cruiser using ballistic missiles tipped with cluster drones and conventional warheads, highlighting the vulnerabilities of US naval defenses and the need for cost-effective missile defenses and kill-chain-disruption technologies.
This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that China’s Fire Dragon 480 tactical ballistic missile could potentially sink a US Ticonderoga cruiser, according to a recent study by the People’s Liberation Army published in Command Control & Simulation academic journal.
As for the Fire Dragon 480’s specifications, Janes reported in February 2023 that it has a range of 360 kilometers and a 480-kilogram warhead. Two missiles can be mounted and fired from the PHL-16 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS).
Janes also mentions that the system has been deployed with the PLA 73rd Group Army of the Eastern Theater Command, which deals with conflicts around the Taiwan Strait.
SCMP says the simulation involved 12 missiles attacking two Ticonderoga-class cruisers, sinking one. Its article mentions that an average of six missiles would be required to destroy a large US warship.
SCMP notes that in an alternate scenario, eight of the missiles had cluster drone warheads of six drones each. As the missiles approached the Ticonderoga cruisers, they released their drone payloads, diverting the ships’ firepower and providing more precise target coordinates for follow-up missile attacks. The article adds that any surviving drones were redirected to attack other enemy ships.
According to SCMP, the simulation suggests that China’s PHL-16 MLRS would require technological upgrades to be fully effective for the Fire Dragon 480 and drone swarm tactics. Meanwhile, it notes, the US is gradually retiring its Ticonderoga-class cruisers with the last one scheduled for decommissioning in 2027.
A combined missile and drone attack can pose a formidable challenge to US warship defenses, depleting limited and expensive interceptor missiles, with US warships having no cost-effective means such as laser weapons to counter such.
In March 2024, Asia Times reported that Chinese scientists had created a new type of mono-rotor drone that could split into multiple smaller drones. Each smaller drone can perform various tasks. If weaponized, the drones could be loaded in missile cluster warheads to locate and destroy targets independently.
This advancement in drone technology combines the capabilities of first-person view (FPV) drones with AI autonomy and networking, potentially making them formidable weapons.
Further, in January 2024, Asia Times reported on the US Navy’s laser weapons program setbacks, raising questions about how US warships would fare in a saturation drone and missile attack. Despite advancements in solid-state laser technology, practical issues such as power and space constraints on warships hinder progress. The US Navy has deployed a few systems, but widespread adoption lacks a clear strategy.
However, China may need much more capable missiles in addition to the Fire Dragon 480 to effectively threaten US carrier battlegroups and dissuade intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict. Such missiles would include the DF-21 and DF-26B intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM).
The DF-21D has a range of 500 to 2,150 kilometers and was tested against a ship target in 2013, showcasing its increasing maritime strike capabilities. China’s missile program remains a significant focus for global security discussions, with estimates of around 80 nuclear-tipped DF-21 missiles and 50 to 200 nonnuclear variants in service.
The DF-26B is an anti-ship version of China’s DF-26 IRBM, capable of precise conventional and nuclear strikes up to 4,000 kilometers away.
In terms of missile numbers, according to the US Department of Defense’s China Military Power Report 2023, China has 200 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) launchers and 1,000 missiles in that class, such as the Fire Dragon 480, 250 IRBM launchers, and 500 such missiles.
As to how China envisions using these missiles against US and allied warships, Asia Times reported in May 2023 that China simulated a hypersonic missile attack on the US supercarrier USS Gerald Ford and its escorts, sinking them. The simulation utilized 24 missiles in a three-wave attack, demonstrating the vulnerability of US ships against such weapons.
However, to effectively target US warships, China must collect target data, program and launch its missiles, and regularly practice and test the process. The missiles’ homing sensors and guidance systems must work to hit moving warships. If the US and its allies intervene in a Taiwan Strait conflict, defeating China’s missile kill chain is crucial.
In an August 2023 Breaking Defense article Jim Mitre and Ylber Bajraktari emphasize that, to defeat China’s kill chain, the primary task is to impede its targeting abilities. Mitre and Bajraktari suggest using low-cost unmanned air and maritime vehicles to confuse China’s ability to detect important targets. They say this tactic could lead Chinese forces to the wrong locations or force them to use advanced weapons on false targets.